Philadelphia Union's Decision Day Math

The Union can finish anywhere between third and fifth in the Eastern Conference depending on Decision Day results.

It’s time to do some math!

The Philadelphia Union’s Decision Day math is actually fairly simple compared to other teams.

The Union enter Saturday in third place in the East with 55 points and need at least a draw to remain in the top four.

There are all sorts of scenarios in play for the order of the top four, and for the Union’s potential first-round opponents.

So let’s break it all down!

Here’s where we stand going into Decision Day:

The top seven in the East is what matters to the Union.

Five teams are still alive to fill the No. 8 and No. 9 spots in the East, but those spots are irrelevant to the Union. The 8-9 wild-card game winner faces top seed FC Cincinnati in the first round.

Orlando City will be the No. 2 seed regardless of what happens on Saturday.

Then it gets interesting.

The simplest scenario in play is a Union win over New England. That would lock the Union into the No. 3 seed regardless of what the Columbus Crew does against CF Montreal.

A Union-New England draw at Gillette Stadium confirms a top-four spot for Philadelphia.

The Union will earn the No. 3 seed with a draw if Columbus does not win.

A loss is still not the worst scenario for the Union if it is a close game in Foxborough.

A New England win would put the Revs and Union level on 55 points and 15 wins. Wins is the first tiebreaker used by Major League Soccer.

Goal differential is the second tiebreaker followed by goals scored and then fewest disciplinary points.

New England needs a 3-0 victory to pull level with the Union on goal differential, and in turn, that would put the Revs in the top four on the goals scored tiebreaker. The Revs and Union each have 56 goals scored.

Any defeat by one or two goals would keep the Union in the top four on goal differential.

There is a scenario in which the Crew, Revs and Union all finish on 55 points if the Crew draw Montreal and Revs beat the Union.

In that case, Columbus would earn the No. 3 seed over both teams with a superior goal differential. The Crew sit at +20, the Union at +17 and the Revs at +11. New England would have to make up nine goals on the Crew to jump them if all three teams finish on 55 points.

The Union should be rooting for Montreal to win in Columbus, no matter what happens in Foxborough, because that would keep the Crew under the Union in points.

If you want to further put your brain in a blender, you can go through the potential matchup scenarios for the first round.

Nashville SC hosts the New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United visits FC Cincinnati on Saturday.

Atlanta’s ceiling is the No. 5 seed. The Five Stripes can land that position with a road win in Ohio and a Revs loss to the Union.

Nashville has the potential to leapfrog both Atlanta and New England, if they both lose on Saturday.

Nashville is only three goals behind the Revs on goal differential. The Revs are +11 and Nashville is at +8. Nashville needs to finish ahead of the Revs on GD because it has 17 fewer goals scored than the Revs.

Nashville can only finish in sixth or seventh if the Revs gain any points.

If Atlanta loses to Cincinnati and Nashville draws the Red Bulls, Atlanta would finish in front on goal differential.

Montreal and the Red Bulls have something to play for on Decision Day. Montreal is in eighth place, while the Red Bulls are one of four teams beneath the red line. Chicago, Charlotte and New York City FC are still alive as well.

The No. 8 and No. 9 seeds will play in a one-game playoff to face FC Cincinnati on October 25.

The first round, or conference quarterfinals, will take place between October 28 and November 12.

All first-round matchups will be a best-of-three series. The higher seed in each matchup will host Game 1 and Game 3, if necessary. The lower seed will host Game 2.

There will be a winner in all first-round games. Matches will go directly to penalty kicks if they are tied after 90 minutes. The first team to win two games advances.

The conference semifinals, conference final and MLS Cup are all one-off games.

Photo Courtesy of Philadelphia Union.