Breaking Down the Philadelphia Union's Path to the MLS Cup Playoffs
The Union need to beat FC Cincinnati on Decision Day and receive some help to finish in the top nine places of the Eastern Conference.
Decision Day 2024 will have a much different feel to it for the Philadelphia Union.
Instead of fighting for seeding or the Supporters’ Shield, the Union will take one final swing to get into the MLS Cup Playoffs.
Here’s what the Eastern Conference table looks like going into Saturday’s 6 p.m. ET games.
Games That Matter
Charlotte FC at D.C. United
New York City FC at CF Montreal
Atlanta United at Orlando City
Decision Day Clinching Scenarios
The Union win, Montreal loses and D.C. loses.
The Union win, Montreal loses and Atlanta loses or draws.
The Union win, Montreal loses and Union own tiebreaker advantage over Atlanta.
The Union win, D.C. loses and Atlanta loses or draws.
The Union win, D.C. loses and Union own tiebreaker advantage over Atlanta.
Let’s start with the basics from the Union’s perspective.
Saturday’s game at Subaru Park only matters to the Union. FC Cincinnati is locked into the No. 3 seed in the East. The Union have been most competitive with Cincinnati among the top four teams in the East, so there’s at least some inkling of hope that three points are earned at home.
A draw or loss will not get the Union into the postseason, so they have to go all out for the three points.
Montreal plays host to a New York City FC team that is playing for a top-four spot in the East. NYCFC sits two points back of Orlando City for fourth place.
Orlando visits Atlanta on Decision Day. Rooting for Atlanta is okay because if the Union and Five Stripes each win, the Union will most likely finish ahead of Atlanta.
The Union and Atlanta are tied on wins with nine, so if they both win on Saturday, goal differential will decide the order of finish between the two clubs.
The Union have a +8 goal differential compared to Atlanta’s -4. Atlanta isn’t going to make up the GD if both teams win unless it breaks MLS scoring records.
D.C. United’s situation could also favor the Union. The Black-and-Red are taking on a Charlotte FC team that needs a win and help from Montreal to move into the No. 5 seed.
Charlotte will make a push for the No. 5 spot so that it doesn’t have to play the Columbus Crew or FC Cincinnati in the first round.
Rooting for NYCFC (as hard as it might be for some Union fans) and Charlotte is imperative.
If D.C. and Montreal lose and the Union win, Jim Curtin’s side has a path to the No. 8 seed and home-field advantage in the No. 8-versus-No. 9 playoff because of goal differential. All three sides would have 10 wins in that scenario.
The Orlando-Atlanta game only matters if the Five Stripes turn into Manchester City and Orlando becomes Sheffield United of the 2023-24 Premier League season. Not likely.
Photo courtesy of Philadelphia Union.
Wing and a prayer