Assessing the Latest News on Kai Wagner, Julian Carranza

The futures of the left back and forward came into the spotlight this weekend.

The futures of Philadelphia Union defender Kai Wagner and forward Julian Carranza were brought up over the weekend.

Wagner is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2023 Major League Soccer regular season and no progress has been made on a new deal with the Union.

Carranza will eventually leave the Union with a pricey transfer fee attached, but the club will not sell the Argentinian until the winter at least.

Kai Wagner

Wagner was asked about his contract status after the Union’s win over the New York Red Bulls on Sunday.

"It's probably my last year in Philadelphia now. It was not my decision, but I have to take it,” Wagner said.

Of course, that set off all sorts of alarm bells within the Union fan base about the left back’s status for 2024 and beyond.

The quotes do not change the situation that Wagner faces as the offseason gets closer.

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Wagner has been the subject of many transfer rumors over the last few years, but all of those have fizzled out as just interest. Union sporting director Ernst Tanner and head coach Jim Curtin have repeatedly said no official bids came in for Wagner during those windows.

So many factors have gone into the rumors of the past.

Wagner’s previous agents were more than willing to leak information to boost his stock, and while some of the clubs mentioned in the same sentence with Wagner may have been interested, that was all it was.

Wagner is approaching a different situation with his free agency because he could be in a position to negotiate his own contract anywhere in the world.

The Union still have plenty of time to sit down at the negotiating table with Wagner and find a fair middle ground.

Just because Wagner said what he did on Sunday night does not mean the negotiations are dead. It could be something as simple as Wagner playing hardball with the organization to get what he thinks he deserves, which is how negotiations in every walk of life work.

There was some widespread panic about Curtin and Tanner’s own contract situations earlier in 2023, but those were resolved, even though there were some not-so-positive reports on those negotiations, mostly with Curtin’s deal.

If Wagner walks in free agency, which is possible, he may not find an incredible market.

If the mid-tier teams in the English Premier League and Bundesliga have not made offers for him now, is the lack of a transfer fee enough to bring him on?

The perception of MLS has evolved over the last few seasons, but there are still some clubs in Europe who look down on acquiring talent from the league.

Wagner was not a heralded youth prospect, and he worked himself into one of the best success stories in MLS in the last five years, but that prior status could affect a potential move overseas as well.

For example, would a mid-tier Bundesliga club bring him in over developing its own player who can fetch multiple millions in the future. After all, this is a business and signing a 26-year-old who may have already hit his ceiling may not seem like a smart decision overseas.

Wagner’s best option might be to stay in MLS, be the top left back in the league and compete for trophies.

The top teams in the world are not going to sign him, so would he better off back home in Europe playing in the mid-table or in relegation battles? That’s a personal decision he would have to make.

FC Cincinnati is the obvious MLS side that would have interest in him for numerous reasons. Alvaro Barreal might be on the move in January, Chris Albright and Pat Noonan run the show there and know Wagner well, and the German is also good friends with Sergio Santos, the former Union forward who was traded to FC Cincinnati last summer.

Cincinnati can offer Wagner the chance to keep winning elsewhere and it could potentially pay him more.

But the question that needs to be answered from the MLS side is if any team believes a left back should be on that high of a salary.

Wagner’s current guaranteed compensation is $701,000, per the MLSPA salary guide. He has a base salary of $630,000.

The players listed as defenders who make more than $1 million in base salary, per the MLSPA salary guide, are:

Thiago Martins (NYCFC)

Walker Zimmerman (Nashville SC)

Victor Wanyama (CF Montreal)

Gaston Gimenez (Chicago Fire)

Carlos Gruezo (San Jose)

Nemanja Radoja (Sporting KC)

Matt Miazga (FC Cincinnati)

Miles Robinson (Atlanta United)

Gaston Brugman (LA Galaxy)

Kellyn Acosta (LAFC)

Rafael Czichos (Chicago Fire)

Andreas Maxso (Colorado)

Obinna Nwobodo (FC Cincinnati)

Teenage Hadebe (Houston)

Richie Laryea (Toronto FC)

Aaron Long (LAFC)

Ilie (LAFC)

Jonathan Mensah (San Jose)

Joakim Nilsson (St. Louis City)

James Sands (NYCFC)

Giorgio Chiellini (LAFC)

Tim Parker (St. Louis City)

The majority of those players are center backs and defensive midfielders.

The Union’s center back duo of Jakob Glesnes and Jack Elliott make $900,000 and $750,000 in base salary, respectively.

Mikael Uhre and Daniel Gazdag are the only Union players with a base salary over $1 million. Glesnes and Alejandro Bedoya have guaranteed compensation over $1 million.

So if you are the Union, you have to figure out whether Wagner is more valuable than Glesnes. That’s what the contract structure with Wagner may come down to.

Glesnes is not a Designated Player and recently received a contract extension. Wagner has some room between his current salary and the DP threshold so that a new deal would still not make him a DP.

A $200,000 raise, or something along those financial lines, might suffice all parties. The Union are not going to pay Wagner a DP salary and there is some middle ground to negotiate to.

Of course, this will bring about the “Union are Cheap” criticisms, and while they still remain in the bottom half of MLS spenders, they have been willing to hand out raises to their top performers over the last few years to keep them in Chester long term.

Curtin has been passive aggressive with his comments about spending among other things in some of his recent post-game remarks.

It’s no secret the Union need to spend more to keep up with the likes of LAFC, Inter Miami and Cincinnati.

The new facility in Chester probably will not do much to draw new transfers. This isn’t college football, or 2014 when they promised Rais Mbolhi they would build a training field.

The club’s monetary ambitions need to be adjusted, and there just might be some funds to help with a Wagner deal if Carranza is sold in the offseason.

Julian Carranza

Olympiacos reportedly offered $7 million plus bonuses and a sell-on free to the Union for Carranza.

The reported transfer fee is too low for the Union to accept for a player of Carranza’s profile.

However, Olympiacos is probably within the range of clubs who will be attracted to the Argentinian forward.

Carranza is good enough to play for a team around the UEFA Europa League level.

He is 23 with consecutive double-digit goal seasons on his resume. He scored his 26th regular-season goal for the Union on Sunday night.

Which league and club suits Carranza most is up for debate. He could probably score 10-plus goals in the Bundesliga and develop there, but you could also make the case for La Liga or Serie A depending on the style of play at certain clubs.

Carranza can definitely make it at a Europa League-level club and that is probably the first or many concrete offers the Union will receive for him.

Philadelphia is smart to wait until the winter to sell Carranza for what is likely going to be a club record fee.

The Union want to chase MLS Cup with their best roster possible and then they can worry about a potential sale in the winter, and who knows Carranza price could go up based on performance in the playoffs, or the needs of clubs in Europe come January.

The club is probably already scouting replacements across Europe in preparation of this potential move.

The last big deal, for Brenden Aaronson, allowed the Union to bring in Gazdag and reward their best players with larger contracts. The latter of those two things should happen again, and the Union need to reinvest most of the fee in potential replacements, but that’s a conversation for January.

Photo courtesy of Philadelphia Union.